Armored Guardian, Agonizing Demise or Armadillo Cloak?
What do you pick?

Matthew Vienneau

We're back analyzing draft choices! Aaron Forsythe recently sent me the choices he confronted in his first pack at a draft in Pittsburgh. The pack is interesting in that it provides an opportunity to illustrate a rarely considered strategy that goes against conventional drafting wisdom. I've been using this strategy more and more lately and it seems to have been paying off. The pack is as follows:

    Armored Guardian
    Benalish Heralds
    Crimson Acolyte
    Armadillo Cloak
    Agonizing Demise
    Repulse
    Pincer Spider
    Vicious Kavu
    Seven other cards that aren't first-second pick caliber.

It's your first pick, first pack, what card do you take?

(You have thirty seconds... now select your card and lay out the pack for the next drafter)

The pick that almost universally gets selected is the Agonizing Demise. Agonizing Demise is an excellent card, it's easy to splash, black is one of the best colors, there seems to be no reason NOT to take it. And with only Vicious Kavu as a competitive black or red card, it even sends the right signal to your left by minimizing the number of black cards passed. You're also happy because the next best couple of cards are blue-white, blue, and green-white so there should be little competition for your black cards. Black-red is where you want to aim, and after your first pick everything seems to be on course.

What if you want to avoid black for some reason? Perhaps you know the two people on your right always play black, or you just broke up with someone who always wore black and can't stand it anymore, or you "accidentally" happened to see that the player on your right took Yawgmoth's Agenda, then what? The general reasoning is that you should take the Armadillo Cloak. The Cloak is a powerful card and the only other green card, the Pincer Spider, is much worse than the rest of the pack so no one else should go green for many picks. The Agonizing Demise should put the person on your left into black, which gives you some room, and a blue-white card will likely be taken next, making even more space for your green picks.

Conventional wisdom also suggests that the one card you want to avoid is the Armored Guardian (the only other viable first-pick option). You're passing two very good white cards in Armadillo Cloak and Benalish Heralds so all you're doing is setting yourself for two competitors, one of them in the exact same colors as you. Blue-white just isn't deep enough that you want to risk that sort of competition so early and the last thing you want is the players on your left playing blue-white, black-blue, and green-white.

But I think we can do even better and set conventional wisdom on its ear! I want to take TWO picks out of the pack - without getting banned! This isn't an article on how you can sleight of hand extra cards onto your pile but rather an alternate strategy that I think has the potential to get two cards into your deck that may be better than just the Demise. I think we can get the Armored Guardian and either the Heralds or the Crimson Acolyte as our ninth pick! Is that better than single Agonizing Demise? Maybe, maybe not, but that doesn't mean the theory isn't good or can't be used in similar situations.

To get two cards, all we need to do is make sure there are enough cards for people sharing our color choice of white-blue that one card will be remaining for us. Since there are seven other decent cards and seven other players picking from the pack, the worst-case scenario is that their color choices perfectly align with the cards in the pack and when the pack returns, you have seven chaff cards to select from. For example, the player on your left opened his own Armored Guardian and takes the Heralds, the player to her left opened Smoldering Tar and takes the Demise, and so on. But with only one red card and two black cards, my experience with Invasion-Planeshift has shown that this perfect alignment of players and cards almost never happens.

It is even more unlikely due to the allied-colors nature of Invasion-Planeshift and all the associated gold cards. In previous draft blocks, there were ten different two-color combinations to build decks with. If you passed a pack with four good white cards there were four different color combinations that could use the cards. Since people could wait longer to pick their second color, there was a very real possibility that they would go into white using the plentiful number of white cards as a signal that white was under-drafted. There was little point in taking the most popular color as it just meant it was more likely you'd be sharing with four other people.

But Invasion-Planeshift is different. There are only five real two-color combinations, and in general everyone is aiming for two allied colors if they can. And with the gold cards so powerful, players often select their two colors early with picks such as Shivan Emissary and Spinal Embrace. And unlike previous blocks where a white card could go into four of ten possible deck combinations, gold cards such as Armored Guardian can only go into one of the five - blue-white.

So let's look a the five color combinations and figure out how many candidates we have for each from the eight cards:

Black-blue - Agonizing Demise, Repulse
Black-red - Agonizing Demise, Vicious Kavu
Blue-white - Armored Guardian, Benalish Heralds, Repulse, Crimson Acolyte
Green-red - Pincer Spider
Green-white - Armadillo Cloak, Pincer Spider, Crimson Acolyte

Certain observations jump out from this list. Green-red players only have one card that would fit in their deck so it is extremely unlikely that the Pincer Spider will come back to us as almost every table has a green-red drafter. Similarly, with black-x combinations so popular, it would be remarkable if the Agonizing Demise came back around, as there are only three different cards for the various black-x decks to share and the Demise is extremely powerful. Using similar logic, we can probably rule out the Vicious Kavu and the Repulse as returning to us due to scarcity of good cards in black-x color combinations.

But there are LOTS of cards for blue-white decks. And there are lots of cards to tempt players who are playing allied colors from taking our blue-white cards. The black-blue mage is more than likely going to take the Demise over the Repulse if given the possibility. And the green-white mages are definitely going to take the Armadillo Cloak or the Pincer Spider over the Crimson Acolyte. Heck, the other blue-white mage may take the Repulse over the Heralds if given the chance!

And those last two situations are what you're hoping for. With only five different allied color combinations to build decks with, and eight players in a draft, 1-3 people will play each color combination. In Invasion-Planeshift, it is unlikely that more than two will play any non-black-x combination. So there are three basic possibilities:

    There are no other blue-white players at the table. This is perfect, and the Benalish Heralds should come right back to us!
    There is one other blue-white player at the table. As long as the Repulse is still available and the other blue-white player prefers it to the Heralds, the Heralds will still come back. This is dependant on there being no blue-black players picking ahead her and if there is, that the Demise is still available for them to take first. Even if the other blue-white player does take the Heralds, there is still a chance the Crimson Acolyte will be available. If there is only one green-white player then they will take the Cloak, leaving the Acolyte. The possibility that there are two green-white players as well as a second white-blue player who picks after the Repulse and Demise have been taken is very slim.
    There are two other blue-white players. This is a bad situation for many reasons, not the least of which is that you're now fighting over a mid-level color combination with two other players and will likely run out of good picks very quickly. Presuming there is at least one green-white player (and there better not be more than one!) we're sharing white with half the table! In this situation, we're still hoping that the Acolyte will get to us. If things go our way, the first other blue-white player will have take the Repulse, the second will take the Heralds, and the green-white player will take the Cloak.

Now this is starting to look pretty complicated! Are players expected to figure out all the possible permutations during the thirty seconds that they have to make their pick? Not at all! With practice you start to figure this stuff out at the gut level without having to go through each possibility. But until you get to that point, I've got a couple of basic guidelines to use:

    If there are three two-color playable cards, including gold cards and cards that are only good with the kicker or activated ability of the second color such as Shivan Emissary, as well as one or two cards in either of the colors, then go for it. For example, Barrin's Spite, Sleeper's Robe, Recoil, Recover and Shoreline Raider. This works especially well if you can take a single color spell and leave three gold cards that share your color. For example, taking Breath of Darigaaz and passing Meteor Storm, Fires of Yavimaya and Yavimaya Barbarian.
    If there are five or more playable cards of a single color, go for it. It's extremely unlikely that five people will be playing the same color. For example, a pack with Atalya, Samite Master, Wayfaring Giant, Spirit Weaver, Glimmering Angel and Benalish Lancer will almost guarantee you a second white card as your ninth pick.
    If there are more than eight decent cards, and five of them are in one of the two colors you hope to be playing, go for it. For example, a pack containing Yawgmoth's Agenda, Viashino Grappler, Vodalian Serpent, Kavu Climber, Duskwalker, Glimmering Angel, Llanowar Knight, Phyrexian Reaper, Shivan Zombie, Annihilate and Urborg Emissary will almost definitely reward a first pick Agenda with an ninth pick that will fit in a black-blue or black-red deck. The more than eight decent cards requirement allows us to make probability our friend as at least one card has to come back, and if more than half of them are in our colors, then the odds are the returning card will also be in our colors.

Before everyone rushes out to start drafting the most popular color in their opening pack, I want to cover some of the finer points of the strategy as well as some of the exceptions that are very important to watch for. Due to issues concern brevity, or the lack thereof, I'm going to use yet another list, please forgive me.

    Mono-color cards. Our strategy works very poorly with less than five mono-color cards. If you take Crypt Angel and leave Urborg Shambler, Phyrexian Slayer and Exotic Curse, don't come crying to me when none of them come back. With only four cards in your colors, the strategy is only likely to work if at least three are multi-colored, as mentioned above. Taking Reckless Assault and passing Smoldering Tar, Plague Spores and Shivan Zombie is what you're looking to do;
    Don't pass really good cards. If you take Charging Troll and pass Sabertooth Nishoba and two Armadillo Cloaks (one foil) then you're just asking for trouble. Those cards are so good that people will switch into the colors even if it's the sixth or seventh pick (especially if it's the sixth or seventh pick!) It's not impossible that one of them will come back, but it's extremely unlikely;
    Allied with green. Green decks are very capable of splashing for good cards, so it's riskier to try and double up on a pack full of blue, green and white cards. The Heralds in our example could easily be taken by a green-white mage who appreciates the 2/4 creature for 3 ManaWhite Mana and is willing to run the activated ability off of Elves and Harrow. This doesn't apply to allied-colored cards that aren't easy to splash such as Galina's Knights or Absorb;
    Hard to splash is best. Similar to the previous point, you're much more likely to get a blue card back if two of them are Metathran Transport and Undermine than if they're Probe and Rainbow Crow. With three-color decks all over the place, good players are avoiding heavy color commitments whenever possible. Since you know they're coming back, you can plan accordingly and draft a deck that's heavy in islands;
    Be aware that what you pass may affect the draft. By taking Armored Guardian over Agonizing Demise in our sample pack, we may end up convincing someone to go black-blue over blue-white. Even if they've already drafted a blue card and a white card, having an Agonizing Demise passed to you is often a strong signal that you should be playing black; Passing Probe to someone with an Exotic Curse and Tribal Flames may be enough to convince them to go black-blue and leave the red cards for your green-red deck;
    Color hosers and deck hosers. In our sample pack, there is a very real possibility that the Crimson Acolyte will be taken by a red player, as there is only one decent red card in the pack. This doesn't happen very often, as there might be something in the red player's other color, or even a sub-standard card that they don't mind having such as Kavu Scout. But on occasion a player will take the Simoon you were eyeing because she's already drafted three 1/1 tappers, or take the Marauding Knight because there are no good white cards left;
    Card preferences. Different people rate the cards very differently. If you're in an area where everyone likes playing green, you would be foolish to try and "long range" a green card to yourself. If everyone at your table is a big fan of creature swarms, you can probably get away with trying to send yourself a five-mana 3/3 creature, but it's very unlikely a Rage Weaver or Hate Weaver will make it around;
    Draft environment. Trying to slip yourself five black cards that are easy to splash in an Invasion-Planeshift environment that has everyone playing black or splashing it is a risky move. But sending green-red cards probably won't have you sweating it quite so much. Be aware of what colors are popular in the environment. Don't keep trying to pass yourself green-red cards in Invasion-Planeshift-Apocalypse if it turns out that Apocalypse is full of green and red bombs and everyone starts playing it;
    Keep the bombs. Passing Rout so you can get a Nomadic Elf and a Serpentine Kavu is not the path to draft success. This strategy only works when you have to choose between a couple of close picks! Of course, if you're sitting beside me, I encourage you to pass as many bombs as you want...

As you can see, drafting at the highest level is incredibly difficult with all the various things you have to remember and consider. But with experience, most of this becomes instinctual.

Ironically, when looking at the guidelines I've outlined, our sample pack does not qualify as a pack where we should be taking the popular color first! There aren't three blue-white-only cards to guarantee that one will come back. There aren't five blue cards or five white cards to ensure that one will get through to be our ninth pick. And even though there are five cards combined in blue and white, there aren't eight or more playable cards so we can guarantee that one will come back. Does that mean we should automatically take the Agonizing Demise?

If the other seven cards are truly unplayable, then yes, take the Demise. But if there is even one more playable card in the pack then we're in good shape to receive a playable card in our colors ninth. Remember that the rules I outlines are guidelines, so even if it's not quite perfect, you can still make a go for it. Maybe you're drafting at a table where no one likes blue-white, or maybe what you consider unplayable someone else thinks is secret sideboard tech. Maybe the cards and players will just fall perfectly and you'll get what you want. But also remember that sometimes everything goes wrong. As I described at the beginning of this, you could end up with the player on your left taking the Heralds, the next player taking Demise and the next player going with Repulse or the Cloak, but it's that constant risk of the unknown that makes drafting so darn exciting!

What really happened at Mr. Forsythe's draft? Aaron took the Agonizing Demise and the Benalish Heralds came back as he ended up black-blue-white with a bunch of wasted black-red picks and a not-so-good deck (his words!). Andrew Cuneo on his right ended up black-red, while John Rizzo on his left went black-blue-red, hence the squeeze. Perhaps going blue-white straight from the start would have made the difference!